February 16, 2026 – Bitcoin is navigating a pivotal macro week as it trades near $68,600, following a sharp retracement from 2025 highs above $126,000. Investors are closely monitoring US economic indicators that could determine the next major BTC move.
After a volatile start to the year, including pressure from tariff tensions, sticky inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s pause on rate cuts, markets remain cautious. With US markets closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, lower liquidity could amplify Bitcoin volatility once key economic data is released midweek.
Key US Economic Reports Impacting Bitcoin
Traders are focused on four major releases this week:
- January FOMC Minutes – Wednesday
- Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday
- Q4 2025 GDP Final Revision – Friday
- December PCE Inflation – Friday
CME FedWatch data shows only a 9.8% probability of a March rate cut, reflecting skepticism about near-term easing. Even modest data surprises could push Bitcoin toward $70,000 resistance or back to $60,000 support.
FOMC Minutes: The Fed’s Policy Insight
Wednesday’s FOMC minutes will provide deeper insight into Federal Reserve policymaking. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% in its last meeting, citing resilient growth and persistent services inflation.
- Hawkish signals: Could reinforce “higher for longer” expectations, triggering 3–5% Bitcoin pullbacks as Treasury yields rise.
- Dovish or balanced signals: May revive rate-cut speculation, driving BTC toward $70,000 in thin holiday-trading conditions.
Initial Jobless Claims: Measuring Labor Market Strength
Thursday’s report offers a real-time view of labor market health:
- Below 210,000: Signals strong employment, reducing easing expectations, pressuring BTC 1–3% lower.
- Above 230,000: Points to potential softening, boosting Bitcoin 2–4% as markets price in faster Fed action.
BTC’s $68,000–$69,000 consolidation means this report may bridge insights from the FOMC minutes to Friday’s inflation release.
Q4 2025 GDP Revision: Growth and Market Impact
Friday’s GDP revision is expected at +2.5% annualized growth, down from the initial +4.4% estimate:
- Below 2.3%: Reinforces slowdown narratives, potentially lifting Bitcoin 3–6%.
- Above 2.7%: Strong growth could delay easing, weighing on crypto markets.
Consumer spending, comprising about 70% of GDP, will be a closely watched metric.
December PCE Inflation: The Fed’s Core Gauge
The PCE inflation report is the week’s most critical catalyst:
- 0.2% MoM (cooler-than-expected): Signals disinflation, increases rate-cut probability, and could spark a 4–8% Bitcoin rally above $70,000.
- Above 0.3% MoM: Reinforces sticky inflation concerns, pressuring BTC down 3–5%.
Why This Week Matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to US macroeconomic trends. Traders should watch the FOMC minutes, jobless claims, GDP revisions, and PCE data for indications of interest rate moves, inflation trends, and overall market risk appetite. Even subtle surprises could trigger meaningful price swings.
