SAN JOSE — When Jensen Huang walks into Nvidia’s earnings call tonight, he will carry the weight of the entire artificial intelligence trade on his shoulders.
That is not an exaggeration. Nvidia’s fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results, due after the closing bell today, have become something far beyond a routine corporate disclosure. They are a referendum on whether the most powerful investment theme of the past three years still has legs. They are a test of whether hundreds of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure spending by the world’s largest technology companies is producing the kind of returns that justify doing it all over again in 2026, only bigger.
For investors, analysts and anyone who has watched Nvidia transform from a gaming chip company into the most valuable corporation on the planet, tonight is the moment of truth.
The Numbers Wall Street Is Watching
Analysts going into tonight are projecting revenue of approximately $65.6 billion to $66.1 billion for the quarter. A year ago, Nvidia reported $39.3 billion in revenue for the same period. If the estimates hold, that means Nvidia will have grown its top line by roughly 67 percent in twelve months, a figure that would be the envy of virtually every other company in the S&P 500.
Earnings per share are forecast at $1.52 to $1.53, up from $0.89 last year. The data center division, which has become the undisputed engine of Nvidia’s growth, is expected to generate around $60.2 billion of that total on its own.
But here is what experienced Nvidia watchers know well. Meeting the number is not enough anymore. At a market capitalization of $4.69 trillion, the largest in the world ahead of Apple at $4 trillion and Microsoft at $2.89 trillion, the stock has already priced in a great deal of good news. What moves Nvidia from here is the forward guidance. Analysts are watching for first quarter fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of around $72.5 billion. Anything short of that and the after-hours reaction is likely to be swift and unforgiving.
Why the Hyperscalers Are Everything Right Now
The story underneath Nvidia’s data center numbers is really a story about four companies: Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta. Together, these four technology giants have committed to spending an estimated $650 billion on AI-related capital expenditures in 2026 alone. A very large share of that money flows directly to Nvidia in the form of GPU purchases, server racks and the high-performance computing infrastructure that makes modern AI applications possible.
Amazon and Alphabet have already told investors publicly that AI infrastructure spending will be a defining priority this year. Microsoft continues expanding its Azure AI platform at a pace that requires enormous amounts of Nvidia hardware. Meta, meanwhile, just deepened its relationship with Nvidia through a significant multiyear agreement that covers both Blackwell and Rubin AI processors, and also includes the first large-scale standalone deployment of Nvidia’s Grace CPU servers.
When your four biggest customers are each spending more on your products than most countries spend on their entire defense budgets, it creates a revenue base that is nearly impossible to replicate in any other industry. That is the position Nvidia finds itself in as it heads into tonight’s report.
Blackwell Ultra Could Be the Surprise Nobody Is Fully Pricing In
Investors and analysts tend to focus on what Nvidia has already shipped. But KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh made an interesting argument in his pre-earnings note this week, suggesting that the market may be underestimating the impact of Blackwell Ultra, the next generation of Nvidia’s already formidable Blackwell chip architecture.
Blackwell Ultra carries a 20 to 30 percent higher average selling price compared to standard Blackwell chips. That matters because even modest shifts in the mix of chips Nvidia ships, toward higher-priced Blackwell Ultra units and away from standard Blackwell, can have a meaningful and disproportionate effect on both total revenue and gross margins. Vinh also noted that Nvidia remains on track to ship nearly 30,000 AI server racks this year, a figure that underlines just how industrialized the AI buildout has become.
These are not prototype deployments or pilot programs anymore. This is full-scale infrastructure construction, the digital equivalent of building highways and power grids, happening simultaneously across dozens of countries and hundreds of facilities.
Gaming Is Having a Quiet Revival
Lost in all the AI conversation is the fact that Nvidia’s gaming business is performing better than it has in years. Analysts expect gaming revenue of approximately $4 billion for the quarter, representing 58 percent growth compared to the same period last year. For a division that was overshadowed and somewhat neglected during the peak AI frenzy, that is a remarkable comeback.
There is also a potentially significant development on the horizon for Nvidia’s presence in personal computing. Reports have emerged suggesting the company is preparing to launch its own laptop CPU, which would place it in direct competition with Intel, AMD and Qualcomm in the PC market. The financial scale of laptop processors is nowhere near data center revenue, but a successful move into high-performance laptops would meaningfully extend Nvidia’s reach into the hundreds of millions of users who buy premium computers for gaming, creative work and increasingly, running AI models locally on their own devices.
The China Wildcard
No Nvidia earnings call in recent memory has passed without a detailed and careful discussion of China, and tonight will be no different. The situation remains genuinely complicated and the market will be listening closely for any clarity Huang can provide.
On the positive side, the US government has signaled that Nvidia can resume certain chip sales to China. Reuters reported this week that Chinese authorities specifically approved purchases of Nvidia’s H200 processors by Alibaba Group and Tencent, despite earlier official guidance from Beijing encouraging Chinese technology companies to favor domestically developed chip alternatives.
On the negative side, demand signals from China remain mixed and difficult to read. Domestic Chinese semiconductor companies are developing their own AI chips with increasing urgency, backed by significant government support. The broader trade environment adds another layer of uncertainty, with China’s cargo gap with the United States now estimated at $112 billion as tariff evasion activity reaches record levels.
How Huang characterizes Chinese demand tonight, whether he frames it as a growing opportunity or a manageable uncertainty, will likely move the stock in a meaningful way regardless of what the headline revenue number shows.
What Happened Last Time Markets Got Nervous
The recent volatility in AI-related stocks is worth understanding as context for tonight’s report. Just weeks ago, a research note from analyst firm Citrini flagged concerns about near-term AI disruption risks and triggered a sharp selloff that sent Indian IT stocks to their lowest level in 30 months and rattled technology shares more broadly. The Citrini founder himself expressed surprise at how strongly markets reacted to his firm’s analysis.
That episode revealed something important about where investor psychology stands heading into Nvidia’s report. Confidence in the AI trade remains high but it is no longer unconditional. The market has become more sensitive to any suggestion that AI spending might slow, that returns on AI investment might take longer than expected to materialize, or that competition might begin eroding the pricing power that has allowed Nvidia to report the kinds of margins that most technology companies can only dream about.
Nvidia has beaten expectations and delivered positive surprises consistently enough that investors have learned to trust its results. But the starting point for this quarter, a $4.69 trillion market cap and a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.45, leaves almost no room for a stumble.
GTC 2026 and Vera Rubin: The Story After the Story
Tonight’s earnings report is, in a sense, the opening act for what may be an even more consequential moment for Nvidia in the weeks ahead.
Shortly after the results, attention will turn to Nvidia’s GTC 2026 developer conference in San Jose, California. GTC is Nvidia’s annual showcase for its technology roadmap and it is where Jensen Huang has historically made some of the company’s most significant and market-moving announcements.
This year’s conference carries particular weight because it follows the January debut of Vera Rubin, Nvidia’s latest AI superchip unveiled at CES in Las Vegas. Vera Rubin represents the next architectural step beyond Blackwell and GTC is expected to be the moment when Huang fully unveils the product story, including performance benchmarks, availability timelines and the broader AI infrastructure vision the chip enables.
For investors playing the long game, GTC 2026 may ultimately prove more important than the quarterly earnings number that markets will react to tonight.
What Is Actually Being Decided Tonight
Strip away all the analyst estimates, the segment forecasts and the technical chart analysis and what Nvidia’s earnings really come down to tonight is one central question.
Is the AI supercycle real and durable, or is it a capital spending boom that is beginning to outrun the actual economic returns of AI technology?
The hyperscalers spending $650 billion on AI infrastructure this year are making a bet. They are betting that the AI applications being built on this infrastructure will generate enough revenue, enough productivity gains and enough competitive advantage to justify every dollar of that investment. Nvidia’s results tonight will tell us whether that bet is being placed with growing conviction or whether the first signs of hesitation are starting to appear in the order books.
Jensen Huang has made skeptics look foolish before. He has stood at the front of rooms full of doubters and delivered numbers that made every bearish argument look naive in retrospect.
Tonight he gets another chance to do exactly that. And the entire technology investment world will be watching when he does.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Nvidia report Q4 2026 earnings?
Nvidia reports its fourth quarter fiscal 2026 earnings after the market close today, Wednesday February 25, 2026. The analyst call follows the release shortly after.
What revenue is Nvidia expected to report?
Analysts forecast revenue of approximately $65.6 billion to $66.1 billion, representing around 67 percent year over year growth from $39.3 billion in the same quarter last year.
What is the Blackwell Ultra chip?
Blackwell Ultra is the next generation of Nvidia’s Blackwell AI chip architecture. It carries a 20 to 30 percent higher average selling price than standard Blackwell chips and is expected to be a significant contributor to data center revenue growth.
What is Nvidia’s current market capitalization?
Nvidia’s market cap stands at approximately $4.69 trillion as of February 2026, making it the largest company in the world by market value, ahead of Apple at $4 trillion and Microsoft at $2.89 trillion.
What is GTC 2026?
GTC 2026 is Nvidia’s annual developer conference in San Jose, California taking place shortly after today’s earnings. Jensen Huang is expected to unveil full details about the Vera Rubin superchip and outline Nvidia’s next phase of AI product development.
Can Nvidia sell chips to China?
The US government has signaled that Nvidia can resume certain chip sales to China. Chinese authorities approved H200 processor purchases by Alibaba and Tencent specifically, though broader demand signals from China remain mixed.
What is the AI supercycle?
The AI supercycle refers to the current unprecedented wave of capital spending on AI infrastructure by major technology companies. Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta collectively plan to spend an estimated $650 billion on AI capital expenditures in 2026, much of it flowing toward Nvidia hardware.
What should investors watch for beyond the headline number?
The first quarter fiscal 2027 guidance figure is the single most important data point beyond Q4 results. Analysts expect guidance of around $72.5 billion. Huang’s commentary on China demand and any GTC 2026 preview will also move markets significantly.
The Bottom Line
Nvidia has earned every bit of the extraordinary position it occupies in global markets today. It identified the AI wave early, built the right products with relentless precision and delivered results that consistently made skeptics regret their doubts.
Tonight is the latest and perhaps highest-stakes chapter in that story. The numbers will matter. The guidance will matter more. And what Jensen Huang says about where Nvidia is going next may matter most of all.
The AI supercycle put Nvidia at the top of the world. Tonight we find out whether it intends to stay there.
