Markets today August 26, 2026 are defined by two events that could move every major asset class simultaneously: Nvidia reports its most anticipated earnings in history after the close today, and the US government releases the July PCE inflation reading at 8:30 AM ET. Add in Bitcoin holding near $79,000 after a stunning 23% weekly rally, a full-scale US-Canada trade war escalating fast, and the Jackson Hole symposium kicking off tomorrow — and this is one of the most consequential days in markets this year.
Market Scorecard for August 26 2026
| Asset | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,677 | ▲ 0.32% yesterday |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,151 | ▲ 0.66% yesterday |
| Nasdaq-100 Futures | Near flat | ▼ 0.2% premarket |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | ~$79,000 | Slight pullback |
| Core PCE Expected | 3.0% YoY | Data at 8:30 AM ET |
| Nvidia Revenue Estimate | $92.2B | Reports after close |
| Oil | Easing | Inflation relief |
| Gold | Elevated | Near 3-month highs |
Nvidia Reports Today and the Entire Market Is Watching
Nvidia releases its fiscal Q2 2027 earnings after the market close today, and this is the most watched earnings report of 2026. Analysts forecast revenue of $92.2 billion, up 97% year over year, and EPS of $2.09, nearly double the prior year. Full-year guidance is expected in the $103 billion to $105 billion range.
The challenge for Nvidia is not whether it can beat the numbers — it is whether it can beat the expectations baked into those numbers. A clean beat with strong AI chip demand signals could reignite the Nasdaq rally. A miss or cautious guidance could send tech stocks sharply lower. Markets have already seen Intuit slide 10% in premarket today — a reminder of how unforgiving earnings season can be when expectations run high. Nvidia faces infinitely more scrutiny.
PCE Inflation at 8:30 AM Could Decide the September Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — the Personal Consumption Expenditures index — is released at 8:30 AM ET today. Core PCE is expected at 3.0% year over year for July, slightly above June’s 2.9%. Tariff-driven price pressures from the US-Canada trade war are expected to keep inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target for months ahead.
Markets currently price roughly a 40% probability of a September 16 rate hike. A hotter-than-expected PCE reading today could push those odds above 50%, strengthening the dollar and pressuring both equities and crypto. A softer reading eases hike fears and supports gold and bonds. This number sets the tone for everything that follows this week including Warsh’s keynote Friday.
Bitcoin Holds Near 79K After a Historic 23 Percent Weekly Rally
Bitcoin is trading just under $79,000, pulling back slightly after one of its most explosive weekly surges of 2026. President Trump met with crypto executives last week and publicly pushed Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, a landmark regulatory framework for digital assets. That regulatory clarity drove Bitcoin up 23% in a single week and lifted the entire crypto market.
Ethereum and Solana slipped about 4% today as traders banked gains from the weekly rally. Bitcoin is holding its ground and the key test comes from today’s PCE data and Friday’s Warsh speech. A hawkish surprise on either could push BTC back below $75,000. A benign outcome keeps the path open toward $82,000 to $85,000.
US-Canada Trade War Escalates With Carney Declaring Economic War
President Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion in Canadian goods after trade talks collapsed. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared that Canada is “at war” with the United States and announced matching retaliatory tariffs effective September 8. Canada will double tariffs on American steel and aluminium to 50% and add levies on approximately 700 other US products.
This escalation adds structural inflationary pressure to the US economy at exactly the wrong moment. Higher import costs from America’s largest trading partner feed directly into consumer prices, complicating the Fed’s path and making rate cuts in 2026 even less likely. The Canadian dollar weakened on the news as the trade standoff enters its most dangerous phase yet.
Jackson Hole Starts Tomorrow With Warsh on Stage Friday
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium runs August 27 to 29, 2026, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote as Fed chair on Friday August 28. Bloomberg describes the event as offering “Warsh a prime stage to rebut his critics” following months of controversy over Fed policy and the Treasury’s surprise bond buyback expansion. Warsh is expected to focus on balance sheet reduction rather than give explicit rate forward guidance — but any signal on September hike odds will instantly move markets.
Oil Eases and Gives Inflation Bulls a Moment to Breathe
Oil prices pulled back today after the initial Iran sanctions shock on Monday, giving equity markets a small relief valve. Asian stocks rose on the easing crude prices as lower oil directly reduces near-term inflation expectations. Brent crude remains elevated versus pre-Iran-ceasefire levels, but today’s dip is a marginal positive for stocks and the Fed’s inflation fight heading into the PCE print.
What Happens Next
- Today 8:30 AM ET: July PCE inflation data
- Today after close: Nvidia Q2 FY27 earnings
- Tomorrow Aug 27: Jackson Hole begins
- Friday Aug 28: Fed Chair Warsh first Jackson Hole speech
- September 8: Canada retaliatory tariffs take effect
- September 16: Federal Reserve rate decision
Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nvidia report earnings today August 26 2026?
Nvidia reports fiscal Q2 2027 earnings after the close on August 26, 2026, around 4:20 to 4:30 PM Eastern Time. Analysts expect $92.2 billion in revenue and EPS of $2.09, nearly double year over year.
What is PCE inflation expected to show today?
Core PCE is expected at 3.0% year over year for July 2026, released at 8:30 AM ET on August 26. A reading above 3.0% would push September Fed rate hike odds above 40% and pressure risk assets.
Why did Bitcoin rally 23 percent last week?
Bitcoin surged 23% last week after President Trump met with crypto executives and pushed the CLARITY Act through Congress, providing regulatory clarity for digital assets. Institutional buying accelerated on the news, pushing Bitcoin to $79,000.
What is the US-Canada trade war status today?
The US imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods in August 2026. Canada announced matching retaliatory tariffs effective September 8, 2026, covering steel, aluminium and 700 other products. PM Carney called it a state of economic war between the two countries.
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