July 6, 2026
Oil prices today edged lower after OPEC+ agreed to raise its output targets for August, adding to signs that global supply is recovering even as markets wait to see how U.S.-Iran relations develop this week.
Brent crude fell 34 cents, or 0.47%, to $71.78 a barrel in early Monday trading, giving back Friday’s gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 20 cents to $68.49 a barrel. There was no settlement for WTI on Friday since U.S. markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday.
OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed on Sunday to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, extending similar increases made in June and July. That’s part of why oil prices today are drifting rather than spiking, even with lingering geopolitical risk in the region.
Why the OPEC+ Increase Matters Less Than It Looks
Analysts note the increase is largely symbolic for now. The war between the U.S., Israel and Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic for months, capping output from major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said traders coming off the long U.S. weekend are watching closely to see whether relations between Washington and Tehran stay calm or flare up again this week.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said the OPEC+ decision matched expectations but carries limited weight right now. He pointed to the UAE’s exit from the group and the fact that many members are still ramping production back up after the conflict. The UAE formally left OPEC on May 1.
Gulf Exports Are Recovering, But Slowly
Gulf producers have started reviving supply that was shut in during the war. OPEC output jumped by 3.3 million barrels per day in June from May to reach 19.43 million bpd, according to a Reuters survey, recovering from its lowest level in more than two decades.
Gulf exports rose more than 3 million barrels per day over the same period to top 10 million bpd, though volumes remain 40% below pre-war levels. That gap is a big reason oil prices today haven’t fallen further despite the OPEC+ increase.
Russia’s oil exports from its western ports also hit a record high in June. Industry sources say Moscow is expected to keep exports elevated in July after Ukrainian drone strikes damaged domestic refineries, pushing more crude out to international markets.
What to Watch This Week
Markets will continue watching diplomatic signals out of the Strait of Hormuz talks this week, along with fresh production data, for clues on where oil prices today will head next. A calm week between Washington and Tehran could accelerate the Gulf export recovery; renewed conflict could just as quickly reverse it.
Stay ahead of the next move in oil markets. DF Media’s energy desk tracks OPEC+ decisions, crude prices, and the Strait of Hormuz situation as they develop — before the headlines catch up.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are oil prices today lower after OPEC+ raised output?
Oil prices today slipped because the OPEC+ increase is seen as largely symbolic for now. The Strait of Hormuz conflict already capped output from major Gulf producers, so the extra 188,000 bpd target has limited immediate impact on supply.
What is the current price of Brent crude and WTI?
Brent crude fell to $71.78 a barrel and U.S. WTI slipped to $68.49 a barrel in early Monday trading, both down slightly from Friday’s close.
How much did OPEC+ raise oil output by?
OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, extending similar increases already made in June and July.
Are Gulf oil exports back to pre-war levels?
No. Gulf exports rose more than 3 million barrels per day in June to top 10 million bpd, but that volume remains 40% below pre-war levels.
